If the U.S. followed such a pattern, blue would be used for the Republicans and red for the Democrats. Telling tweet from election law expert Rick Hasen: "Biggest surprise of the election watch for me so far: Florida's election administration doesn't make my top 3 of places I'm worried about. There was an error processing your request. The state went to Trump in 2016, but this time around, it flipped to Biden by a narrow margin. That year, the crime rate was 3,620.15 crimes per . Is New Hampshire a blue state? - Quora With proper treatments well known including proper dosages (vs. WHO stating in 1979 the potentially lethal dose of HCQ was 1500-2000 mg then attempted a study at 2400 mg in one day, that was designed to both fail and kill.) A 2021 poll found that 52% of Trump voters and 41% of Biden voters support partitioning the United States into multiple countries based on political party lines. Source: NYT exit polls: 24,537 surveyed[54], Source: CNN exit polls: 24,558 surveyed[55], Democratic While some red counties shifted to the left, larger margins of victory than Clinton in already-blue countieswas the primary force thatdrove Biden to victory. V4 Stands Against North African and Middle Eastern Invasion, Robo-Advisors: When You Have a Lot More to Lose than Money, FARM AMERICA: New York Citys Finest Cheesemongers, The Fed Independent and Non Political Joins The Resistance, Tucker Carlson Interviews My Favorite Florida Farmer. In 2020, Joe Biden won Georgia and Arizona, states that had last voted Democratic in 1992 and 1996, respectively. Pennsylvania, where the U.S. Constitution was written, was the second state admitted to the Union, officially becoming a state in December 1787. The advent of color television in America during the late 1950s and early 1960s prompted television news reporters to rely on color-coded electoral maps, though sources conflict as to the conventions they used. By breaking the map down into smaller units (including many blue counties lying next to red counties), these maps tend to display many states with a purplish hue, thus demonstrating that an ostensibly blue or red state may, in fact, be closely divided. Pennsylvania's diversity is mostly on par with the rest of the nation. In 2008, Obama won in Iowa and New Hampshire by more than nine percentage points, and New Mexico by double digits. Heres why Pennsylvania is a Red State to the core. Pennsylvania voted democratic in the 2020 election. [33] The polarization has been present for only four close elections (2000, 2004, 2016, and 2020). POLITICO's Live 2016 Pennsylvania Election Results and Maps by State, County and District. In September, just eight states had. List Of Blue States And Red States In The United States (2023) - GkGigs The lack of clear classes make these purple maps prone to the problems of color perception described above. We may be entering the brief "blue mirage" portion of the night, where Biden deceptively looks like he's doing well because counties first report the mail ballots they've been counting all day, and Biden supporters disproportionately voted by mail. In the days after the 2000 election, the outcome of which was unknown for some time after election day, major media outlets began conforming to the same color scheme because the electoral map was continually in view, and conformity made for easy and instant viewer comprehension. With the caveat that we still know very, very little about Pennsylvania, let's zoom in on one county: Washington County, which is in the pro-Trump western part of the state. While Hillary Clinton dominated in Philadelphia, winning 82%, she only took a 475,000-vote edge out of the city, compared Barack Obamas 492,000 vote advantage in 2012. The steady expansion of Denver and its suburbs turned a red state into a purple state, then into a blue state where Republicans struggle to win. [21][22] Another problem relates to data classification. FiveThirtyEight's forecast currently expects these states to step slightly to the left in 2020, but there's a lot of uncertainty here, especially in a state like Maine where the error bars. Charlie We haven't heard yet from Allegheny County, which is also a top source of Democratic votes. The "Democratic blue" and "Republican red" color scheme is now part of the lexicon of American journalism. Then again, Sen. Bob Casey told me he thought the race could potentially be called in Pennsylvania tonight. The map was placed in the network's election-night news studio. In April 2008, Republican presidential nominee John McCain predicted that the presidential election that November would not follow the red-state-blue-state pattern, saying, "I'm not sure that the old red state, blue state scenario that prevailed for the last several elections works. I'm totally zeroed in on Pennsylvania tonight. Maps show how Pennsylvania voted for president county-by-county - WTAE These "purple maps" are useful for showing the highly mixed nature of voting, but are extremely difficult to interpret in detail. because red and blue state designations . What determines a state's "color"? You might have heard of this: In Pennsylvania, if you don't submit your mail ballot with the proper envelope, it's called a naked ballot and it will get tossed out. Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic on Red, Blue, and Swing States Likewise, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Hawaii all voted for Democrat Kerry by wide margins, but all had Republican governors at the time. [12] The 2000 election was not the first during which the news media used colored maps to depict voter preferences in the various states, but it was the first time the current red-blue terminology was used. "Amerika whlt Spiegel Online Nachrichten", "The Urban Archipelago: It's the Cities, Stupid", Choosing colors based on incumbent vs. challenger victory from November, 2004, The Honky Tonk Gap: Country Music, Red State Identity, and the Election of 2004, "Re-imagining the Red States: New Directions for Southern Studies. But look, this is what PA elected officials told us could happen for months. An example of data being processed may be a unique identifier stored in a cookie. (This list is made as per the party winner of the Presidential election in each state [Not Governor], Here the Red represents Donald Trump whereas the Blue represents Joe Biden). [37][38] Nearly half of U.S. voters resided in counties that voted for George W. Bush or John Kerry by 20 percentage points or more in 2004. Before Trump's 2016 win, the state voted. As such, a constitutional Republic form of government as the U.S. is (remember, America is not a democracy), could certainly be expected to vote for President Trump by an even wider gap in 2020. Special elections, if any, are excluded. Not a single Penn county gave Clinton over 60% of the vote. The analysis that suggests political, cultural and demographic differences between the states is more accurate when applied to smaller geographical areas. PUBLISHED: November 5, 2020 at 11:39 a.m. | UPDATED: November 5, 2020 at 7:29 p.m. Pennsylvania's continued ballot count from the general election showed the state possibly flipping from red to . Voters will also nominate candidates for Congress and the state Legislature. Traditionally, the practice of designating a U.S. state as red or blue is based on the first-past-the-post winner-take-all system employed for presidential elections by 48 of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. The Online Home of Author and Investor, Dick Young, President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks on Americas Energy Dominance and Manufacturing Revival Tuesday, Aug. 13, 2019, at the Shell Pennsylvania Petrochemicals Complex in Monaca, Pa. (Official White House Photo by Tia Dufour). What I want to know is the number out of Philly -- what margin is Joe Biden taking out of the state's largest city? Trump's New Math: Inside the Plan to Flip Blue States in 2020. However, the current U.S. scheme has become so ingrained in the American election system that foreign sources who cover U.S. elections, such as the BBC, Der Spiegel and El Mundo follow with the red-Republican, blue-Democratic scheme for U.S. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and one district in Maine voted Republican in 2016. Thirty of Penns 44 counties gave Trump 60% of the vote. Vertical lines before 1992, 2002, 2012, and 2022 show Census-related redistricting breakpoints. Some voters expressed concern about imposing constables, others reported feeling harassed. Like around the country, we're seeing. [57], The scheme has found acceptance and implementation from the U.S. federal government as the Federal Election Commission report for the 2004 presidential election uses the red-Republican and blue-Democratic scheme for its electoral map. Same for GA senate races Charlie. Global Liquidity Is Increasing Despite the Fed. The Left's Funny New Lie: It's The 'Red States' With More Crime! And then, like Anita, I am watching to see how POTUS reacts. If . Winner chosen by the House of Representatives During Biden's final stop in the state yesterday at a drive-in rally in Pittsburgh, following his barnstorm of the state with his running mate Kamala Harris and their spouses, he said for the zillionth time that he doesn't want to banfracking. Archie Tse, The New York Times graphics editor who made the choice when the Times published its first color presidential election map in 2000, provided a nonpolitical rationale for retaining the redRepublican link, explaining that "Both 'Republican' and 'red' start with the letter 'R. Getting at the red mirage idea, if we dont get Atlanta and big GA burbs, and some major blue areas of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania its easy to see Trumps lead holding for now or staying closer than they should end up. . - Matter of Fact with Soledad O'Brien Perhaps no one is better at understanding Pennsylvania voters than former Governor Ed Rendell. You have to beware with these reports, though. It is not a blue state or a red state. The only deviations from the preexisting red-blue paradigm were all in Obama's favor. The rate of drug overdose deaths has been steadily increasing in Tennessee over the past five years, and as with the other states, opioid drugs play a big role. Given the general nature and common perception of the two parties, "red state" implies a conservative region or a more conservative American, and "blue state" implies a more liberal region or a more liberal American. Click here to learn more about the role the Lancaster County Local Journalism Fund plays in Lancaster County and to make a tax-deductible donation. Traditional political mapmakers, at least throughout the 20th century, had used blue to represent the modern-day Republicans, as well as the earlier Federalist Party. He served as governor from 2003 to 2011 and was also the mayor of Philadelphia. The Wolverine State grew by 2.0% or 193,691 people from 2010 to 2020, raising its population to 10,077,331. All but 10 states1 1Plus one congressional district in Nebraska had voted consistently Democratic or Republican for (at least) the prior four consecutive presidential elections. Both provided Obama with double-digit margins of victory over McCain. Biden won by larger margins than Clinton in every county that voted for her except for Philadelphia, where he won by about 4,000 fewer votes than Democrats had in 2016. During the 2016 presidential election, two districts (the first and second) gave Clinton over 80% and 90% of the vote. The following list is tabled from the last Presidential Election 2020. Swing states: Arizona - A red state turning blue? - CGTN The converse can also be true, as in the case of Maine, which had two Republican U.S. senators, but Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry won the state's electoral votes. [24] A juxtaposition of differing colors and shades can result in contrast misperceptions. Pennsylvania Joe Biden's projected win in his native state of Pennsylvania put him past the 270 total electoral votes needed to win the presidency. One problem occurs when areal units differ in size and significance, as is the case with election maps. [18], Thus, red and blue became fixed in the media and in many people's minds, despite the fact that the Democratic and Republican parties had not officially chosen colors. These maps provide a more detailed picture but themselves have various problems associated with classification of data. By opting into newsletters you are agreeing to our. Redistricting 2021: Red states, blue voters Elaine Kamarck Thursday, September 30, 2021 FixGov After a COVID-19-related delay in getting out the census data, states across the country are now. As of 2020, fully 35 out of 50 states in the U.S. have voted for the same party in every presidential election since the red-blue terminology was popularized in 2000. The Democratic or Republican party of a particular state may have policies that departsometimes greatlyfrom those of the national party, sometimes causing that state to favor one party in state and local elections and the other in presidential elections. Maps of this type are termed choropleth maps, which have several well-known problems that can result in interpretation bias. The blue-state exodus gains momentum | The Hill Again competitive in 2020, Joe Biden won by 1.2%. Biden's projected win in the state was fueled by significant gains in already-blue counties, including Atlanta (Fulton County) and its suburbs. But Biden won the most votes in the most populous county, also called Jefferson. [1] Examining patterns within states reveals that the reversal of the two parties' geographic bases has happened at the state level, but it is more complicated locally, with urban-rural divides associated with many of the largest changes.[2]. Anita Trump aides were claiming high turnout in Republican areas in Luzerne, which is one of the three counties that flipped from supporting Obama to Trump in 2016. For the GOP, this represented 179 electoral votes. [3][4] However, the perception of some states as "blue" and some as "red" was reinforced by a degree of partisan stability from election to election from the 2000 election to the 2004 election, only three states changed "color"; and as of 2020, 35 out of 50 states have voted for the same party in every presidential election since the red-blue terminology was popularized in 2000, with only 15 having swung between the 2000 and 2020 election. The state's 20 electoral votes could be pivotal in the 2020 race. In fact, the only Georgia county that flipped Burke voted Clinton in 2016, then Trump in 2020. All Rights Reserved. Democrats' new logo: Change you can sell? On August 5, the risk of death in red states was 1.8 times higher than in blue. Holly Ready to hear what you have to say on Pennsylvania! Biden:43,949 (37.89%), 2016: Manage Settings Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. '"[20], There are several problems in creating and interpreting election maps. Popular vote data are necessarily aggregated at several levels, such as counties and states, which are then colored to show election results. List of Red States (Republican States) - WorldAtlas After the results were final with the Republican George W. Bush winning, journalists stuck with the color scheme, as The Atlantic's December 2001 cover story by David Brooks entitled, "One Nation, Slightly Divisible", illustrated. Electoral law in Maine and Nebraska makes it possible for those states to divide their electoral votes: winner-take-all both by congressional district and statewide. All states contain considerable amounts of both liberal and conservative voters (i.e., they are "purple") and only appear blue or red on the electoral map because of the winner-take-all system used by most states in the Electoral College. Vice versa for Montana. I think it's the state to watch. Data: The Princeton Gerrymandering Project through 2018; 270toWin research. Similarly, one state south, 56.45 percent of Oregon voters chose Joe Biden in 2020 compared to just 40.37 percent for Donald Trump. Christopher On the expectation-setting remarked upon earlier from the Biden campaign about Florida, what are we to make of the fact that the campaign told me this a few days ago about Pennsylvania that "we can win without Pennsylvania," though they didn't think they'd needto? Pennsylvania is generally considered a battleground state, although it voted Democratic in the six elections prior to 2016. These states often had more regulations and higher taxes. How a life-sized Biden could be a larger-than-life president, Three reasons Joe Biden flipped the Midwest, 284,931 cast by those registered as no affiliation/third party/other, About 548,000 mail-in ballots have not been returned as of now but if they are postmarked by Election Day (or there is not a "preponderance of evidence" they were sent after) and received within three days, the state Supreme Court said they must be counted. 'Ohio has taken a different turn': Ohio no longer appears to be a swing This election cycle, according to Politico, the state is leaning slightly blue. (This list is made as per the party winner of the Presidential election in each state [Not Governor], Here the Red represents Donald Trump whereas the Blue represents Joe Biden). Further highlighting this polarization: While relatively competitive overall, only four states (FL, NC, OH, VA) were decided by less than 5% popular vote margin in the 2012 presidential election. This is most evident in the Southern United States, where the state Democratic Party organizations tend to be more conservative than the national party, especially on social issues. Not one! However, there are pros and cons to both classified and unclassified choropleth maps. Interactive 2024 Election Map - Electoral Vote Map This threshold varies by state and is based on patterns of past vote reporting and expectations about how the vote will report this year. In 2008, college graduates were divided equally; those with postgraduate degrees voted for Obama by an 18% margin. Here are the 10 states with the largest Democratic advantage: Wyoming - R+26 West Virginia - R+23 North Dakota - R+20 Oklahoma - R+20 So how does all that look visually? On election night that year, there was no coordinated effort to code Democratic states blue and Republican states red; the association gradually emerged. These States Could Flip From Red To Blue During The 2020 Election ", "Ideas & Trends; One State, Two State, Red State, Blue State", https://web.archive.org/web/20061122124004/http://www.princeton.edu/~petehill/time-election-map-1996.jpg, "Those Special Election Bells, Whistles and, Yes, Some Numbers, Too", "A Divided Government Remains, and With It the Prospect of Further Combat", "Learn the signs of your political colors", "Ideas & Trends; One State, Two State, Red State, Blue State Page 2 New York Times", "Rules and Principles of Scientific Data Visualization", "Keynote Address at the 2004 Democratic National Convention", "Maps and cartograms of the 2004 U.S. presidential election results", "We Are All Purple: The Destructive Lie of Red States and Blue States", "Cartographic variations on the presidential election 2000 theme", "For a Conservative, Life Is Sweet in Sugar Land, Tex", "Electorally competitive counties have grown scarcer in recent decades", "The Divide Between Red and Blue America Grew Even Deeper in 2016", "For Most Americans, the Local Presidential Vote Was a Landslide", "Are close presidential elections the new normal? Pennsylvania has a long history of being consequential in presidential elections choosing 20 of the last 25 . Has Texas ever turned blue? - KSAT Again competitive in 2020, Joe Biden won by 1.2%.While still an important prize, with 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania, like many industrial northern states, has seen population migrate away in recent decades. There are three classes of Senators; one is up for election every second year. Biden didn't flip any counties in Georgia. by The Hill staff - 10/24/14 6:00 AM ET. It is not a red state. Note that election maps of all kinds are subject to errors of interpretation. Georgia: Red, blue or purple? Experts weigh in on swing-state status What are red and blue states? For other uses, see, Contrast with color usage in other countries, Table of presidential elections by states since 1972. I think most of these states that we have either red or blue are going to be up for grabs. Gray indicates available electoral votes that were either not cast or cast for a candidate not on the ballot. The state had an additional redistricting before 2018. Cartographers have traditionally limited the number of classes so that it is always obvious which class a color shade represents. Polls close in 15 minutes inPennsylvania. The numbers are clear: in 2020, 57.97 percent of Washington voters chose Joe Biden, and only 38.77 percent chose Donald Trump. The Tennessee Department of Health reports that 1,451 people died of drug overdose within the state in 2015. For example, due to the simultaneous contrast effect, the Bezold effect, and other factors, an area shaded light red surrounded by areas shaded dark red will appear even lighter. "[27] Arguably, this eventually proved to be somewhat true, but not in McCain's favor as Obama won three "red" states that had not voted Democratic in many years, namely Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana along with a part of deep red Nebraska, via the state's (much less conservative as a whole) second congressional district. Red States 2023 - Worldpopulationreview Biden did so by rebuilding the "blue wall" of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, according to NBC News projections. It further claims that from 1976 to 2004, in an attempt to avoid favoritism in color-coding, the broadcast networks standardized the convention of alternating every four years between blue and red the color used for the incumbent president's party. This problem is compounded if the units are not equally significant. The counties that flipped their states for Biden - USA Today The political map of Pennsylvania is often described as a T with Republicans holding sway up the center of the state and across its northern tier, and Democrats strongest in the southeast and southwest. Where the 'Blue Wall' Was Strongest, and Where Cracks Appeared. With all eyes on Georgia and the upcoming Senate runoffs slated for Jan. 5, 2021, Emory College Dean Michael A. Elliott hosted a panel discussion Dec. 2 examining Georgia's new swing-state status and future role in American politics from business, marketing . Virginia has continued voting for the Democratic presidential nominees (as well as increasingly electing Democrats at the state level), leading to its being reclassified as a blue state in recent years. One trend that has been true for several election cycles is that states that vote Republican tend to be more rural and more sparsely populated (thus having fewer electoral votes) than states that vote Democratic. Pennsylvania has an middling number of people with four-year college degrees. [24] Large areas of color appear more saturated than small areas of the same color. NBC continued its color scheme (blue for Republicans) until 1996. 2020 US Presidential Election Results: Live Map - ABC News But in 2016, although Hillary Clinton won Latino voters by roughly 30 points, turnout was remarkably . Out of. During the 2016 presidential election, two districts (the first and second) gave Clinton over 80% and 90% of the vote. The next batch will be reported at 9 a.m. (I am deleting my post earlier that said Philly officials said they were not reporting more mail-in results tonight, because it appears to have been based on incomplete information. They think even if it moved a few votes it could be enough to win thestate. Last election, Pennsylvania was a red state. Each tend to show some patterns well while obscuring others. This may have been a holdover from the Civil War, during which the predominantly Republican north was considered "blue". One source claims that in the elections prior to 2000 every state that voted for Democratic candidates but one had been coded red. Is It All Coming Apart in the Governments Face? Voters head to the polls on Nov. 3 in Pennsylvania, a critical battleground state that boasts 20 electoral votes. Prior to Election Day, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected a request by Pennsylvania Republicans to block a state court order that allows mail ballots arriving up to three days after Nov. 3 to be counted. Red vs. Blue States: Competing Visions for 2022 and 2024 [1] NBC newsman David Brinkley famously referred to the 1980 election map outcome showing Republican Ronald Reagan's 44-state landslide in blue as resembling a "suburban swimming pool".[14]. US County Electoral Map - Land Area vs Population - Engaging Data Is The Electoral Map Changing? | FiveThirtyEight Although many red states and blue states stay in the same category for long periods, they may also switch from blue to red or from red to blue over time. The 21st-century association of colors in American politics is contrary to the long-standing conventions of political color in most other countries whereby red symbols (such as the red flag or red star) are associated with leftist politics. Nov. 12, 2020, 11:00 AM UTC / . By 1996, color schemes were relatively mixed, as CNN, CBS, ABC, and The New York Times referred to Democratic states with the color blue and Republican ones as red, while Time and The Washington Post used the opposite scheme. Blue States No. Some election maps, however, have violated this tradition by simply coloring each areal unit with a red-blue mixture linked to voting ratio dataresulting in an "unclassified choropleth map". Pennsylvania's median household income falls in the middle of the pack. Twenty red states are expected to go for President Donald Trump, and 23 blue states (including DC) are expected to go for former Vice President Joe Biden. [39] In 2008, 48 percent of U.S. voters lived in such counties, which increased further to 50 percent in 2012 and to 61 percent in 2016. Losing Pa would seem to require picking up something bigelsewhere. Richard C. Young is the editor of Young's World Money Forecast, and a contributing editor to both Richardcyoung.com and Youngresearch.com. Youve Read The Last Issue of Intelligence Report, Now What? The answer, of course, is yes they are both of those. California and New York have become national catalysts for progressive policies, while Texas and Florida have become the most powerful advocates of conservative alternatives. Taking Biden at face value about Michigan and Wisconsin where, for what it's worth (not that much), the exit poll data looks pretty good for him and he came in with a significant polling lead here's where the map goes: If Biden wins those two, plus Maine, Nevada and Arizona, but nothing else, he's at 269 electoral votes. By this definition, Arizona and Georgia are still (slightly) red states R+7.6 and R+7.4, respectively. In a 2020 update from the Rockefeller Institute, the disparity between traditional blue and red states is even more significant, especially for the state of New York, Republicans' favorite target . If we just win one state between North Carolina and Georgia, then we could lose Michigan and Florida and still get over 270 electoralvotes.. Dra 2020
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